IPO surge to spark revival in global private equity?

Confidence and liquidity are returning to global private equity, driven by a long-awaited surge in initial public offerings (IPOs) in early 2026.

Confidence and liquidity are returning to global private equity, driven by a long-awaited surge in initial public offerings (IPOs) in early 2026.

The uptick in IPO activity is boosting valuations, improving deal conditions, and creating more buoyant market conditions across the private equity landscape.

According to Ernst & Young’s Global IPO Trends report, there is a potential ‘mega wave’ of AI IPOs in 2026 as leading GenAI companies actively consider listings.

EY Ireland corporate finance partner, Fergal McAleavey, said 2026 is shaping up to be a potentially pivotal year for global capital markets.

“With companies like SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic actively exploring possible IPOs – each with the scale to command tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars – the market could see one of the most significant cycles of large‑cap technology listings in over a decade.”

He said this wave of activity could create opportunities for other businesses considering an IPO, but standing out will require more than ambition. “Companies need to ensure they maintain strategic flexibility, tell a clear story about their business and make sure their foundations are strong. In a market that opens and closes quickly, those that prepare early will be best placed to act when opportunities appear.”

Adam Myers, executive director at Pengana Capital Group, says the revival is enabling capital to be recycled into new investments, benefiting the broader PE ecosystem.

“The re-opening of capital markets, and the number of IPOs we are seeing, is one of the strongest signals that confidence and liquidity is returning to PE,” Myers said.

The revival isn’t limited to headline-grabbing tech giants. While PE1 holds stakes in major companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, the bulk of the portfolio targets relatively ‘boring’ and resilient mid-market businesses.

“PE’s middle market has shown performance advantages, with middle market buyout funds historically outperforming large-cap buyout strategies,” he said.

Myers notes that these companies often offer lower entry multiples, less competition, and multiple exit options, making them a dependable foundation for returns while larger, high-profile investments provide strategic upside.

“They can acquire another business, be acquired, be sold to a strategic sponsor, or pursue a public offering. The foundation of the PE1 portfolio consists of these cashflow generative, economically resilient, mid-market buyout businesses,” he said.

“But when there is an opportunity to take a meaningful position in a company like SpaceX we also have that flexibility to take it,” Myers said.

Other high-profile companies on the 2026 IPO watchlist include ByteDance (TikTok), Databricks, Stripe, Revolut, Canva, Discord, and Strava.

Global IPOs totalled 1,293 in 2025, raising US$171.8 billion, a 39 per cent increase in proceeds year on year, according to Ernst & Young.

“Asia Pacific captured the largest share of global proceeds, while EMEIA led by deal count,” the firm said.

Meanwhile, according to PwC, private equity buyouts in Australia rose 32 per cent in value in 2025 to US$30.5 billion across 95 deals – a renewed momentum after subdued activity following the 2022 peak.

PwC’s M&A outlook for 2026 predicts a shift from buying to selling. “Sponsors face liquidity pressure on long-held assets. Expect accelerated exit activity, particularly in the mid-market, as pricing expectations reset.”

“The greenshoots for 2026 are here: mid-market deals are getting done, international capital is flowing in, and private equity is showing promise,” Kushal Chadha, deals leader at PwC Australia, said on February 23.

“Australia’s IPO window has opened, but it’s a different story to the US – we’re not seeing big tech floats. What is getting done, in both IPOs and M&A, are well-prepared transactions where teams have engaged early and planned for longer timelines. That discipline is paying off,” Chadha said.

HLB Mann Judd says prolonged softness in the ASX IPO market has raised questions about how long companies will stay private and whether public listings remain commercially attractive.

In its latest IPO Watch Australia Report, the firm highlights several supportive factors: the ASX offers lower entry thresholds than many global exchanges; it’s ranked among the world’s top 10 exchanges for capital raising; it benefits from a deep, stable investor base supported by Australia’s position as the fifth-largest pension market; strong governance standards enhance transparency and credibility for listed companies; and emerging dual-IPO models, as seen in proposals from companies like Rokt, may attract more foreign listings and boost the local market.

“Our view is clear: IPO activity will not stay subdued indefinitely, and leading businesses will not remain private forever.”

According to HLB Mann Judd, technology remains a key driver of valuations, supporting speculation around potential local listings from Sharon AI, Firmus Technologies, Morse Micro, and i-Med Radiology.

“Resources are expected to maintain momentum, supported by rising commodity prices, with gold continuing to lead the charge. The rumoured IPO of United H2 Limited, the world’s largest hydrogen conglomerate, signals sustained interest in sustainable investments aligned with the Australian government’s Net Zero 2050 target.”

The ASX saw a 37 per cent increase in the number of new listings, rising from 67 in 2024 to 92 in 2025, with an average return from new listings in 2025 of 24.2 per cent.

ASX senior manager for listings, Sasha Conoplia, said the IPO pipeline remains healthy, with interest from a range of domestic and international companies across sectors, including private market vendors seeking liquidity.

“Public market investors continue to call for new and diverse investment ideas and are willing to deploy capital to the right businesses at the right valuation,” Conoplia said.

“Technology, in particular AI and AI-adjacent businesses, including data centre infrastructure, were standout themes globally in 2025 and expected to continue to attract investor focus through 2026.”

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