Riding the rocket: Pengana’s PE1 doubles SpaceX holdings

Investors in Pengana’s private equity trust PE1 have seen its SpaceX holdings double to US$800 million, with further gains expected from the xAI merger and a potential mega-IPO.

Investors in ASX-listed Pengana Private Equity Trust (PE1) have seen the value of their holdings in the world’s most valuable private company double to US$800 million, with even bigger gains on the horizon as the company’s US$1.2 trillion merger with xAI and a potential mega-IPO later this year promise further upside.

According to Adam Myers, executive director at Pengana Capital Group, SpaceX is “in a really strong position” thanks to two key growth areas: its launch business, where it holds a de facto monopoly for NASA due to reliability, cost, and frequency, and its satellite network, which far outpaces competitors in scale.

With a merger with AI company xAI on the horizon, he added that combining the satellite network with xAI’s layer of intelligence creates an “unbelievable network” that strengthens the company’s long-term prospects. Myers noted that recent secondary share sales and partnership valuations supported a marked-up valuation, with the company now eyeing a potential US$1.5-1.7 trillion IPO in June.

“[US$1.7 trillion] doesn’t seem inconceivable to me, in any way, but it obviously depends on capital market conditions at the time. We are not going through the most favorable period at the moment, obviously, there is uncertainty around this war, which has caused a little bit of a hiccup. I haven’t seen anything to indicate that the market wouldn’t accept the price that’s being discussed,” Myers told Investor Daily.

Myers explained that Elon Musk’s proposed fast-tracking of index inclusion could generate significant demand for SpaceX shares.

The IPO is expected to be the largest in history, with the company floating roughly 3.3 per cent of its equity to raise US$50 billion, according to Morningstar, funding Starship scale-up, Starlink expansion, and the D2C constellation build-out.

Myers said he’s uncertain whether the IPO will float only 3.3 per cent of SpaceX’s equity, noting he has seen a range of estimates and hasn’t confirmed that figure as the definitive expectation.

He explained that traditional indices like NASDAQ and the S&P usually require a minimum free float before weighting a company, but the fast-track proposals would relax or adjust these rules, potentially triggering billions of dollars of passive buying once the stock is listed.

Pengana’s stake in SpaceX has grown steadily since the fund first invested in late 2020, when the company was valued at US$50 billion. By January 2026, SpaceX made up 7.7 per cent of PE1’s portfolio; as of 11 March, it now accounts for 14 per cent, reflecting the company’s meteoric growth.

According to Myers, this unusually high concentration in an otherwise highly diversified portfolio is a deliberate move: “PE1 does not commonly allocate so much to one company, but it has the flexibility to let the performance of exceptional companies run,” he said.

Myers said Pengana’s position in SpaceX is bound to increase again as the adjustment does not yet reflect SpaceX’s February merger with xAI, which valued the combined entity at US$1.2 trillion.

PE1 expects to trim its SpaceX position after the IPO through planned sell-downs, but emphasised that circumstances could change and no pre-IPO sales are currently planned.

“We will hold on through the IPO, as most or all pre-IPO investors probably will. There will be negotiated terms around liquidity, but ultimately, we will look to exit and recycle capital opportunities.”

Myers said that highly innovative companies like SpaceX are staying private longer because they have ample access to private capital, allowing them to pursue long-term visions without the constraints of public markets, such as quarterly reporting and regulatory disclosure.

“They can build out their long-term vision in private hands, while they don’t have to report quarterly, while they don’t have the inconvenient regulation and disclosure etc. We think a larger and larger segment of economic activity is remaining private, or staying private for longer,” he told Investor Daily.

“That means that if investors want to access the broadest opportunity set, which means they can construct the most complete and resilient portfolios, then private equity is no longer optional – it becomes a requirement for portfolio construction.”

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