SpaceX’s ballooning valuation flowing through to ASX-listed trust

Elon Musk’s space exploration, satellite, AI and social media company SpaceX is poised for a mega-IPO in the US, with the shares likely to be fought-over. But one ASX-listed trust is already invested, sitting pretty on a holding that is guaranteed to grow.

In February, we looked at an interesting way in which Australian investors can get access to the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of Elon Musk’s space exploration and satellite company SpaceX through Pengana Capital’s listed private equity vehicle, the Pengana Private Equity Trust (ASX: PE1).

This trust, which was designed to offer a diversified portfolio of global PE investments, invested in Space X in late 2020, starting with a 2 per cent (of the portfolio) stake when the company was valued at US$50 billion ($71.4 billion).

At the end of 2025, that stake had grown to about 7.7 per cent of the trust’s private markets exposure, making it PE1’s largest investment.

But in February, PE1 announced that the net asset value (NAV) of its SpaceX investment had doubled in value, from US$400 million to US$800 million – meaning the Space X investment now represents almost 14 per cent of the trust’s private markets exposure.

Pengana’s position in SpaceX is bound to increase again as the adjustment does not yet reflect SpaceX’s February 2026 merger with AI, social media and technology company xAI, which valued the combined entity at US$1.2 trillion ($1.7 trillion).

In March 2025, xAI acquired its sister company X Corp., the developer and owner of social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

The sum of these corporate manoeuvrings is that Musk has put together a company that covers space exploration (reusable Starship rockets), satellites (including Starlink satellite internet) AI (Grok) and social media (X). This company, Space X, is headed for the US stock market at potentially a US$1.75 trillion ($2.5 trillion) valuation.

Analysts estimate SpaceX generated roughly US$16 billion in revenue and US$7.5 billion in EBITDA in 2025, largely driven by Starlink’s growth.

It has been reported (but not yet confirmed by the company) that SpaceX has filed its initial public offering prospectus with US regulators, setting the stage for what could become the largest IPO in history with a potential raise exceeding US$75 billion ($108.7 billion). On this timing, the company would conduct roadshows for the offering over May and June, with the shares potentially opening for trading in July. The home exchange – Nasdaq or New York Stock Exchange – is yet to be announced.

There is likely to be a scramble for Space X stock, to put it mildly, which makes it all the more interesting that an ASX-listed entity offers exposure to the company right now. And its exposure does not yet reflect the merger with xAI.

Adam Myers, executive director at Pengana Capital Group, says the xAI deal would work its way into PE1’s SpaceX valuation in the coming months. “At this stage it is too early in the valuation process to include the xAI merger, but it is something for all PE1 investors to look forward to,” he says. “SpaceX has shown a phenomenal growth path to become the world’s largest private company and leading commercial space company. There is potential for the SpaceX IPO to be at a much higher valuation, which is exciting for us and shows the advantages of gaining pre-IPO exposure to quality companies.

“Space X is an example of how more large, influential companies are choosing to stay in private hands for longer, and a strong argument towards having at least some private equity exposure in a portfolio,” Myers says.

PE1 is a global private equity portfolio comprising stakes in more than 550 underlying private companies. The fund initiated its SpaceX exposure in late 2020, holding a two per cent stake in its portfolio, at a valuation of US$50 billion. By January 2026, SpaceX comprised 7.7 per cent of PE1’s portfolio, and as of 11 March 2026 accounts for 14 per cent of PE1’s portfolio.

Myers said this is an “unusually high exposure” in an otherwise highly diversified portfolio. “PE1 does not commonly allocate so much to one company but it has the flexibility to let the performance of exceptional companies run, increasing the weighting in the portfolio. And the growth of SpaceX has been truly exceptional.”

While most PE1 companies are solid cash flow companies with defensive characteristics, the listed investment trust also has exposure within its 550+ portfolio to AI powerhouses including OpenAI, Anthropic, and Groq (not to be confused with xAI’s Grok chatbot.)

“Some of these companies will be among the most meaningful businesses of the future, and the only way to access them before they list is via private equity”, Myers said.

PE1’s annualised NAV return, since its inception in 2019 to 28 February 2026, is 8.5 per cent. Unusually for a private equity vehicle, PE1 pays an ongoing distribution yield of 4 per cent a year on NAV.

View the original Inside Adviser article here.

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